Hillary Clinton has told voters that she would not push the US to ratify the Trans- Paci c Partnership if she becomes the next US president. Reuters
The results from voting in the US presidential elections are still not known, and Cambodian government officials and business leaders expressed their concerns yesterday over how the next president might deal with trade with Cambodia, and regional free-trade agreements such as the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP).
Presidental candidates Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump have stated they would not push the US to ratify the TPP, negotiated under current President Barack Obama. The TPP in its current form does not include Cambodia.
The trade agreement was signed by 12 Pacific Rim countries in February, but has not yet been ratified by any of the countries, after seven years of negotiations that established a set of common trade standards for Pacific powerhouses such as the US and Japan.
Noticeably, China has been excluded from the TPP. While the TPP has received mixed support in a number of signing countries, it is unlikely to be adopted if it cannot be ratified by the US government.
Both Ms. Clinton and Mr. Trump have said during their presidential campaign that they do not support the TPP. In an interview with CNN Mr. Trump went so far as to claim that the TPP was being “pushed by special interests who want to rape our country.”
Soeng Sophary, spokesperson for the Ministry of Commerce, told Khmer Times yesterday that the government would continue to work closely with the US government on trade agreements, irrespective of who is the next president.
“Regardless of who would win the election today and lead the US in the next government mandate, Cambodia will still work and deal with the US as a country. The TPP has been under study by our side and it has been acknowledged that the TPP could have certain impacts on competitiveness of Cambodia among regional and global players,” Ms. Sophary said.
“Whether the TPP would be scraped or still be in place, is determined by the elected US president. We need much more time to learn more about the TPP before any moves are taken with regard to [Cambodia joining],” she added.
David Marshall, managing partner at research firm Mekong Strategic Partners, said yesterday that he hoped there would be little change in existing trade agreements between Cambodia and the US, which are favorable to Cambodian exports, especially from the garment industry.
“Both presidential candidates have indicated they do not support TPP. So it will either be tossed aside or renegotiated in some other form.”
“This could make tariff-free eligible goods uncompetitive against other countries,” Mr. Marshall added.
Kang Monika, deputy secretary-general of the Garment Manufacturers Association of Cambodia, cautioned that regardless of the TPP, total exports of garments and footwear to the US has begun to drop, which is a more pressing concern.
“Both Trump and Clinton are politicians, so what they say before the election could be different from what they do after the election,” Mr. Monika said. “It’s more important for us to focus and work on our own national competitiveness than focusing on US politics which is quite hypothetical.”
According to US government figures, Cambodia’s total exports to the US declined more than seven percent in the first nine months of this year to $2.16 billion.
David Josar, deputy spokesman for the US embassy, explained that the US government was pursuing the ratification of the TPP in all 12 member countries before looking for additional members.
“We have said previously that we would welcome other countries’ interest in joining the TPP in the future, provided that country is willing and able to meet TPP’s high standards. In addition, we are working with Cambodia to evaluate the pros and cons of joining TPP,” said Mr. Josar.
“But we can’t speculate on what the next American president will do.”
He added that recent trade agreements under the expansion of the Generalized System of Preferences program saw Cambodian-made travel goods receive duty-free status.
David Van, managing director of consulting firm Bower Group Asia (Cambodia), said that while the TPP represents the main US trade policy in much of Asia at present, Cambodia’s focus should remain on the proposed Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP).
RCEP is a proposed free trade agreement (FTA) between the 10 member states of Asean and the six states with which Asean has existing FTAs – Australia, China, India, Japan, South Korea and New Zealand.
“Though suffering some hiccups, TPP would surely sail through when the next US president comes in. This is a crucial tool for American foreign policy irrespective of whom would be the next president,” Mr. Van said.
“Meanwhile, the Cambodian position has been to simply focus more on RCEP. Our resources are scarce and we can only focus on one major trade agreement at a time.”
Ms. Sophary confirmed that Cambodia was actively involved in RCEP negotiations.
“It is going to be an immense economic integration zone, namely a large regional market with dynamic potential for all involved countries.”
KHMER TIMES
MAY KUNMAKARA
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